silver at $66 with real yields at 2.4 and the fed cutting. rates dont explain any of this

ok so the textbook says positive real yields are bad for silver. why hold metal that pays you nothing when treasuries pay real return. 10 year tips yield is sitting around 2.4 right now. silver should be getting buried.

instead we did $35 in june 2025, $73 by end of december, then $121.67 on jan 29 which is the all time high, and now were back around $66.

so down like 46% from the top and still almost double where it started. thats not what the model says should happen.

and the fed has been cutting this whole time. funds rate around 3.6 now, down from 5.3.

honestly its the same story in every cycle if you go look:

70s, hiked the whole decade, silver hits its high in jan 1980. then volcker takes rates near 20 and it dies.

2004 to 2006, hikes from 1 to 5.25, silver more than doubles.

2015 to 2018, hikes up to 2.5, silver goes nowhere.

2022 to 2023, fastest hiking cycle in forty years, silver ends basically flat.

four cycles, four completely different outcomes. and now a fifth one where rates went the opposite direction and silver went vertical anyway.

whatever caused this it wasnt the fed. supply deficit, investment demand, alot of retail piling in. and january looked way more like stops getting run than anything macro to me.

so whats everyone actually watching at this point? because if the rate thing still worked we wouldnt be sitting here.

did anyone here actually sell into the january top or did we all just watch it