Silver: 3 signals converged + the trigger hit. Possible bottom, here’s what confirms it

A few weeks ago I laid out what I thought needed to happen for metals to bottom. Here’s how it played out:

1. DXY topped ✅
The dollar index rolled over from the ~102.7 area and is now sitting right on 101.50 support. The 10-year yield dropped to ~4.88%. A weaker dollar plus falling yields is exactly the backdrop metals need.

2. Gold/silver ratio topped at 80 ✅
The ratio peaked right at 80 and has started falling (~77.8). Its RSI is rolling over from overbought. When the ratio falls, silver leads, and that’s historically how the bigger legs start.

3. Silver flushed the liquidity under $50 ✅
Silver dipped to ~$48.70, just below the obvious $50 level where stops and fresh shorts were sitting, then reversed hard. RSI turned up from oversold. Speculative positioning was already near its most washed-out level of the past year. Classic shakeout behavior.

The trigger: the midterms ✅
With the election result, the dollar and yields slid together:

Silver +4.9% to $52.23 Gold +3.3% to $4,061, its biggest green day since August

Friday’s jobs report: lil beat 165K, small but negative cool in metals prices.

Bonus backdrop:

Chinese households have been buying gold dips, especially under $4,000 China’s yuan-to-gold route through Shanghai and Hong Kong lets commodity exporters effectively get paid in gold instead of recycling dollars into Treasuries Sentiment is near the lows while physical bullion keeps leaving Western markets

What still needs to confirm (not calling it yet):

Silver: daily close above $53, then $54.60, then the 20 DMA ~$55.35 Gold: close above the 20 DMA ~$4,075 A higher low on the next pullback

Invalidation: a daily close back below ~$48.70 = I’m wrong, and the correction continues.

Monthly charts on both metals still show falling wedges, a pattern that usually breaks upward. If this bounce turns into a breakout, it could be the start of the next leg.

Not financial advice. How’s everyone positioned? Adding here, or waiting for $55?

I post these levels and updates as they happen. Link’s in my profile if you want to follow along.