Tsunami of buying pressure coming on in April

The silver market is bracing for a “tsunami” of buying on April 1, 2026, driven by a massive structural shift from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the primary regulator overseeing India’s financial markets.

Starting next month, SEBI is mandating that Indian mutual funds and ETFs value silver based on domestic spot prices rather than international benchmarks, effectively decoupling Indian demand from Western paper price manipulation. This shift coincides with new rules allowing India’s National Pension System (NPS) to include silver ETFs in their portfolios, opening a pipeline for billions in retirement capital to enter the sector.

Bullion banks have responded to this impending surge by slashing their short positions to a 13-year low, according to recent COT reports, to avoid being trapped in a delivery squeeze. By clearing their books now, these institutions are positioning themselves to benefit from the upward momentum rather than fighting a physical supply that is already in a multi-year deficit.