TLDR
CME halted all metals trading yesterday (Feb 25) at 12:15 PM ET — First Intent Day for March silver delivery. Silver was at $91.29. During the 90-minute halt, 31,828 March silver contracts changed hands in a single candle (see chart below). Normal trading produced ~4,300 all day. When trading resumed, silver crashed $3 in one hour to $88.19. All day orders and GTD orders were cancelled. March OI dropped from 21,882 to 10,526. The 10,526 remaining are longs who refused whatever cash settlement was offered during the halt. First Notice Day is tomorrow (Feb 27). The standing number will be published Friday morning. Iran-Geneva talks are happening right now.
The Volume Tells the Story
Look at this chart:
This is the March silver futures contract on Feb 25. The x-axis is time, the candlesticks are price. See that tiny bar at 12:45 PM ET? 31,828 contracts — in a single 15-minute candle, during a trading halt when the market was supposedly closed.
For context:
The entire rest of the trading day produced ~4,300 March contracts 31,828 contracts = 159.1 million ounces of notional silver That’s 88% of all March volume for the day, executed while retail and most institutional traders couldn’t access the market COMEX registered silver (the metal available for delivery) is 86.3M oz. This single candle traded nearly 2x the entire registered stockpile.
CME called it “technical issues.” They cancelled all day orders and GTD orders. GTC orders remained. No explanation. No post-mortem. The official status page now reads: “There are no current issues.”
What Happened During the Halt
The volume data points to off-exchange / OTC deals executed during the halt window:
Longs holding March contracts were offered cash settlement premiums to exit their positions before First Notice Day 31,828 contracts accepted — either voluntarily or under pressure from the halt conditions ~10,526 contracts refused — these longs said no to whatever was offered When trading resumed at ~1:45 PM ET, the sell pressure hit: silver dropped from ~$91 to $88.19 in one hour
This matches the pattern from the November 2025 halt, where reports emerged that “ongoing silver futures buy-orders were cancelled during the halt” and JP Morgan showed a 12.5M oz registered-to-eligible reclassification the same day.
This is the third exchange intervention in three months (November halt, Black Friday crash, February 25 halt). Each time, silver was approaching key technical or delivery-related levels.
The Numbers That Matter
March Open Interest (T-2 = yesterday)
Date March OI Change Context Jan 27 97,949 — Peak Feb 19 (T-6) 47,847 -50,102 Normal roll Feb 23 (T-4) 37,651 -10,196 Normal roll Feb 24 (T-3) 21,882 -15,769 Massive organic roll Feb 25 (T-2) 10,526 -11,356 88% during halt
The Feb 24 drop (-15,769) was organic — the market functioned normally. The Feb 25 drop (-11,356) was not. 88% of the volume occurred in a single candle during a trading halt.
FND Standing Projection (tomorrow)
Historical T-2 to T-1 (FND) retention rates:
Scenario Retention Projected Standing M oz Normal years (2013-2015) ~30% ~3,200 16M Squeeze years (2021, 2025) ~70% ~7,100-7,500 36-38M
The 10,526 remaining are longs who explicitly rejected the halt deal. These are by definition the most committed delivery seekers. Historical “normal” retention may not apply — the weak hands were already shaken out artificially.
COMEX Inventory
Category Current Change since Feb 6 Registered 86.3M oz -16.2M (-15.8%) Eligible 275.6M oz -16.4M Total 361.8M oz -32.7M (-8.3%)
Registered has dropped from 102.5M to 86.3M oz in 12 business days. Brinks reclassified 1.07M oz from registered to eligible yesterday — pulling metal OUT of the delivery pool right before FND.
May OI: The Real Threat
May 2026 OI: 75,815 contracts (379M oz) — up from 25,001 on Jan 27. This is a 203% increase and the largest pre-delivery buildup for any month in the dataset. May is now 7.2x larger than March.
CME can halt and negotiate once. Can it do it every month?
Physical Market Signals
All pointing to extreme tightness:
Shanghai (SGE) silver: $101.51/oz vs COMEX $88.91 — a 14.2% premium, up from ~10% last week. Shanghai is paying $12.60/oz more than New York. SD Bullion retail: $102/oz — already pricing at Shanghai, not COMEX Shanghai exchanges below 800 metric tons combined — the LBMA’s claimed “5,000 metric tons” of free-float has evaporated CME hiked March silver margins to $78,756 (+12.2%) — each contract now requires ~$444K face value + $78.8K maintenance Gainesville Coins / depository reports of refusing delivery of platinum and silver at the retail level
The paper market can cancel orders and negotiate cash settlements during halts. It cannot manufacture physical silver.
What’s Next — 48 Hours
Date Event Watch For Feb 26 (TODAY) First Position Day + Iran-Geneva talks (happening now) Longs must post full value (~$444K/contract). Who gets liquidated? Iran outcome = binary risk event. Feb 27 (Thu) First Notice Day The standing number. How many of the 10,526 are still there? Feb 28 (Fri) CFTC COT published (Feb 24 positions) Will capture the massive 37K-contract March OI decline. Most dramatic positioning shift of the campaign.
Simplified scenarios from here:
Outcome What It Means Probability Standing < 3,000 CME halt worked. Orderly March. May is the new battleground. 25% Standing 3,000-5,000 Normal delivery month. Comparable to 2024. 35% Standing 5,000-7,500 Elevated. The halt-hardened longs held. Stress test for registered. 25% Standing > 7,500 Near-record. These longs want metal. May will be worse. 15%
Price scenarios by end of May:
Bear ($55-78): 7% — CME intervenes repeatedly, deleveraging Base ($92-115): 33% — orderly but tight, drain continues Bull ($120-165): 38% — delivery stress persists, May escalates Extreme ($165-220+): 22% — delivery failure, cascading squeeze Probability-weighted average: ~$142/oz
Why This Matters
The question is no longer “how many contracts will stand for delivery.” CME showed yesterday it will halt the market and engineer OI reductions when delivery pressure gets uncomfortable.
The question is now about credibility. COMEX exists as a price discovery mechanism. Three halts in three months — with the latest producing 88% of volume during closure — erodes the foundation of that function. Capital is already flowing to Shanghai (+14% premium), Singapore, and physical markets.
Peter Brandt (Market Wizards co-author) publicly asked yesterday: “Have all the silver conspiracy theories been true?”
When mainstream market practitioners start asking that question, the paper price becomes less relevant. SD Bullion is already at $102. Shanghai is at $101.51. The COMEX print of $88.91 is becoming the outlier, not the benchmark.
May at 75,815 contracts is watching. FND is tomorrow.
This is not financial advice. All projections are scenario-based and conditional on data available.
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